TuesdayTips151

I guessed it halfway through!

"I guessed who did it halfway through!"
This triumphant statement, often featured in reviews, is enough to chill any crime fiction writer's heart. For months - if not years - you've slaved away at your manuscript. Meticulously plotting a twisty narrative designed to keep your readers guessing; carefully devising and placing red herrings to divert your audience away from the real solution and crafting memorable characters as a distraction from the actual culprit.
All for nothing! All your hard work is in vain and your beloved book baby is going to crash and burn.
Fear not! Take a deep breath! It doesn't matter.
First of all, let's look at what they've actually said.
"I guessed who did it halfway through!"
That's right, guessed.
There are few hard and fast rules about writing a crime novel. But one that is generally accepted, is that the culprit should appear early in the book, probably within the first quarter or so. Introducing a last-minute twist involving a brand new character a couple of chapters from the end is generally regarded as unfair to the reader. Therefore, you will probably want to introduce a few other reasonable suspects early on as well.
Let's assume that by the midway point there are five or so plausible people who could have done the deed. All things being equal, if you were to stop your reader now and demand to know who they thought might be guilty at this point, then they have a one in five chance of being right!
If a hundred people read your book, twenty will guess the right person. If ninety guess the right person, perhaps you have a problem, otherwise it's all down to  the laws of probability.
Nobody likes to admit they were wrong.
Crime readers, especially those who read a lot of books, like to play along as the story unfolds. They are going to try to work out who did it. For many of us, working out the solution before it is handed to you in the denouement is immensely satisfying. Dare I even say it's a wee ego boost? That's just human nature. On the flip-side, getting it wrong is less satisfying. That's not to say we can't enjoy being fooled by a clever writer. Far from it, and there are plenty of kind and generous reviewers who will recommend your book because you hoodwinked them. But I would suggest, that human nature being what it is, more people are likely to publicly crow about getting it right than getting it wrong.
Flip-flopping doesn't count.
A good writer keeps you guessing. In some of the best books I've ever read, I've chosen my pick pretty early on. But then there's been a twist and I've changed my mind. Sometimes more than once. Even if it turns out I was right in the first place, that's not a real win. Because the writer still fooled me for at least part of the book. So they have done their job.
So they figured out who did it? So what?
OK, let's assume that a reader does decide upon the correct suspect early on and sticks with them to the end. Well here's the thing - they won't be sure they've got it right until they read the last page. It's very unlikely that they are going to put your book down because they made a guess on page 150. Furthermore, the classic TV show Columbo literally told you who did it in the opener. Yet millions stayed tuned in, because what they really wanted to see was Columbo solve the mystery. To paraphrase the old cliché, it's not about the destination, it's about the journey.


What are your thoughts on trying to guess the culprit?
As always, feel free to comment here or on social media.
Until next time.
Keep on guessing,
Paul.
If you are a writer with a tip to share, or fancy writing a fictional interview between you and one of your characters, please feel free to email me.